Iron ore, as one of the varieties with obvious rising trend this year, keeps rising under the background of the epidemic situation, with the increase reaching? More than 50%, the main contract 2101 maintained a high level of oscillation after failing to challenge the 875 yuan / T level twice in mid August and early September, showing a relatively stable performance. At present, the market has entered the stage of high-level game, waiting for the market to choose the direction.
Overall, the supply is abundant
According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 100.36 million tons of iron ore and concentrate in August, down 10.9% month on month. From January to August, China imported 759.915 million tons of iron ore and concentrate, up 11% year on year. According to the statistics of Mysteel, from the beginning of the year to September 4, the amount of imported ore from the six ports in the North reached 391.871 million tons, an increase of 55.805 million tons over the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 16.61%. Since the beginning of the year, the import and delivery of iron ore have increased significantly, and the overall supply is abundant.
According to statistics, the blast furnace operating rate of 163 steel plants was 70.72%, which was 0.27 percentage points lower than last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.43%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. Due to air quality factors, Tangshan continued to limit production at the end of last week. In early September, the output of steel mills decreased by 107800 tons to 3.7154 million tons on a month on month basis. After July, the profit of blast furnace has been obviously compressed, but the change of blast furnace capacity utilization rate is not obvious, and the overall level is still high. The strong demand is the core factor supporting the iron ore price.
As of September 4, the total iron ore inventory of port 45 of Mysteel in China was 113.7399 million tons, an increase of 635100 tons compared with last week. The total inventory of the port has accumulated slightly for three consecutive weeks, which is still the lowest value in the same period in recent three years. From a regional perspective, inventory in East China and South China increased. Among them, due to the slight improvement of port pressure in East China, the overall unloading volume has increased, so the inventory growth is larger. In addition, the inventory and port dredging in the two regions along the river and Northeast China decreased, mainly due to the typhoon and the closure of some ports, which affected the berthing and unloading of ships and the pick-up of steel mills.
Interval operation is the main operation
The high discount of iron ore is a kind of normal. The long-term contract price decreases month by month, and this structure tends to converge in the delivery month. We use the Prussian index and port spot to calculate the basis. The main contract 2101 is higher than the average discount range. According to Prussian index on September 14, the price of RMB is 975 yuan, which is about 150 yuan higher than the 2101 futures price of the main contract, and the spot price discount price of the far month contract is more than 10%. The price difference between the main contract and the spot price of iron ore is large, and the price difference between the internal and external markets expands, which obviously supports the futures price. If there is no collective decline in the market or substantial increase in supply, iron ore with high discount is difficult to come out It is now down sharply.
After half a year's unilateral rise, iron ore entered a high oscillation. The continuous regulation of the exchange and the market's resistance to high ore prices make it difficult for iron ore to form a breakthrough rise again. However, the overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded on a month on month basis, and the domestic mine output reached a historical high, and the month on month increase of port arrival volume is also the main pressure at present. But on the contrary, the high demand of iron ore given by high steel production supports iron ore prices. The price difference between the main contract and spot price of iron ore is large, and the high base difference limits the falling space of futures price, and the short-term iron ore market still has support. Therefore, from the fundamental point of view, the probability of iron ore facing high-level wide range oscillation is relatively large. It is estimated that the oscillation range is 750-870 yuan / ton, so interval operation is recommended.